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usemunshi.com — Constituent Intelligence · PA-07 Suburban District

Your draft — Campaign statement

Families in this district are being priced out of the homes they grew up in. Housing costs have risen 34% in the last four years while wages have barely moved1. My opponent has voted against the Affordable Housing Expansion Act twice and has taken over $180,000 from real estate developer PACs.

I will fight to build more housing2, protect renters from predatory rent increases3, and ensure that working families can afford to stay in the communities they've built.

This isn't a complicated problem. It's a political will problem. And I have the will to solve it.4

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High word choice

"while wages have barely moved"

Suggested edit

"while real wages have risen less than 3%"

You opened with a hard number (34%). A second hard number — same sentence structure, same time window — makes the contrast land. The gap between the two figures is the actual argument.

BLS Real Earnings (real average hourly earnings, 2020–2024): cumulative growth in the low single digits — see bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

Edit 1 of 4

Med audience risk

"build more housing"

Suggested edit

"build the right housing in the right places"

Suburban homeowners are a large share of likely voters in this district. "Build more housing" unqualified tends to trigger density and NIMBY concerns with this group. Specificity neutralizes the risk without weakening the commitment.

Backed by national housing-message research patterns (Pew, PerryUndem, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies). District-specific testing recommended.

Edit 2 of 4

Low tone

"predatory rent increases"

Suggested edit

"unchecked rent increases"

"Predatory" polarizes — strong with base voters, but reads as overreach to moderates and swing voters. "Unchecked" carries the same policy concern with less rhetorical risk.

Based on word-choice testing patterns from swing-district message research (Lake Research, Hart Research, Public Opinion Strategies).

Edit 3 of 4

High structure

"This isn't a complicated problem. It's a political will problem."

Suggested edit

"In my first 90 days, I'll introduce housing-affordability legislation — and I won't stop until working families can afford to stay."

Diagnosis without commitment is the most common closer mistake in campaign writing. Swing voters consistently rank a specific deliverable as a stronger credibility signal than an abstract call to action.

Pattern consistently observed in published swing-district focus-group research (GQR, GBAO Strategies, Garin-Hart-Yang).

Edit 4 of 4

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usemunshi.com/research — Constituent Intelligence

Setup Past research Results

✓ Research complete · 2 min

PA-07 — Lehigh Valley R+1.0 Toss-up Researched 2 min ago · ↻ refreshable on demand

Demographics

A working-class swing district in eastern Pennsylvania anchored by Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton — the Lehigh Valley's three urban cores — surrounded by suburban and exurban townships. Manufacturing-heavy economy with a large healthcare sector. Hispanic population has grown substantially over the past decade and is now concentrated in Allentown, where it makes up roughly half the city. Lehigh Valley Health Network is the district's largest single employer.

22% Hispanic 64% white (NH) 30% bachelor's+ Median HH ~$77K 18% age 65+ 12% manufacturing 11% foreign-born 4.4% unemployment

Party & Electoral History

Registration: ~44% D · ~39% R · ~17% I

2024 President	Trump narrowly
2024 House	Mackenzie +1.0
2022 Senate	Fetterman won here
2022 House	Wild +2.0
2020 President	Biden +0.6

Trending toward Republicans cycle-over-cycle since 2020, driven by working-class realignment in Lehigh and Northampton counties. The 2024 House margin (~4,000 votes) was the smallest of any U.S. House race in Pennsylvania — a true toss-up.

Issue framing — what tests best here

Cost of living "Lehigh Valley families are being priced out" — grocery and utility costs land harder than abstract inflation language. Specific numbers (e.g. "$340 more per month") outperform percentages. High

Healthcare access "Protect what works" — LVHN is the district's largest employer and most-trusted institution; defending existing access lands stronger than proposing new structures or coverage expansions. High

Energy & utility costs "Affordable, reliable energy" — PPL Electric rate increases since 2023 are top-of-mind. Avoid framing this as a climate question; frame as a household budget question. High

Manufacturing jobs "Bring jobs home" tests strongly with working-class voters of both parties. Reference Mack Trucks, Just Born, and Air Products by name. Tariff language splits the district — use sparingly. Mid

Education funding "Defend public schools" — Allentown and Bethlehem Area school districts both face budget pressures. Property tax framing is risky here; focus on classroom outcomes and teacher retention. Mid

Language

High-resonance

working families Main Street stable jobs protect what works neighborhoods paycheck our schools a fair shot

Avoid

radical defund disrupt equity stakeholders

Recent political events & local news

Sep 2025 Allentown School District board hearings on classroom funding draw record turnout. Property-tax burden framing dominates testimony; superintendent search advances to final round.

Jan 2026 Bethlehem Steel site redevelopment advances — mixed-use plan including new housing units progresses through Northampton County review. Affordability advocates cite the project as a local test case for the broader housing-cost debate.

Mar 2026 Housing affordability tax credit advances in the PA House — Lehigh delegation splits along party lines. Mackenzie publicly opposes the bill; coverage of his position by The Morning Call generates local pushback.

May 2026 PA primary filing closes for PA-07 — three Democrats seek nomination to challenge Mackenzie in November; DCCC declines to clear the field, signaling resources will follow the nominee.

What we're tracking — ongoing storylines

General election dynamics: Democratic nominee emerges from May primary; messaging vs. Mackenzie's incumbent record begins. Field-organizing footprint already visible in Allentown and Bethlehem.
Manufacturing employment trends: Mack Trucks, Air Products, and Just Born are bellwether employers — any layoffs or expansions reshape the cost-of-living narrative within days.
HB 1342 in the PA Senate: the housing affordability tax credit faces tougher passage in the upper chamber; Lehigh delegation positioning under scrutiny from local advocacy groups.
Route 22 corridor infrastructure spend: Mackenzie's Transportation Committee seat positions him to claim credit for federally awarded grants; ribbon-cuttings expected throughout summer 2026.

Sources cited

U.S. Census Bureau — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2023) — population, race/ethnicity, education, income, foreign-born
Pennsylvania Department of State — 2024 official election returns — House, Presidential, and Senate margins
Federal Election Commission — 2024 cycle disclosures — Mackenzie/Wild fundraising, donor composition
Lehigh Valley Health Network — 2024 economic impact report — district's largest employer footprint
The Morning Call — local political coverage, Mar–May 2025
PA Department of Labor & Industry — Lehigh Valley unemployment and manufacturing employment series

Compared to traditional research and consulting

The depth of a research firm. In minutes, not weeks.

Communications advisors charge thousands for research, polling, profiling, and messaging — with turnaround measured in weeks. Munshi delivers comparable depth in minutes, at a fraction of the cost.

Task	Through a consultant	If your staff does it	With Munshi
Profile an elected official or decision-maker	$20,000–$80,000+ per research book, 2–4 weeks^2,3	4–6 hours reading votes, statements, and recent press coverage⁴	Minutes
Research a person, organization, or significant figure	Engaged via $5,000–$30,000+ / month retainer⁵	3–5 hours digging through filings, news, and public profiles⁴	Minutes
Scan the media landscape on an issue	Part of $7,500–$30,000+ / month PR retainer⁵	3–4 hours pulling recent articles and identifying key reporters⁴	Minutes
Research a constituency or district	$30,000+ per original survey, 2–3 weeks of fieldwork¹	4–6 hours pulling Census, FEC, and public polling data⁴	Minutes
Build a media target list with personalized pitches	$7,500–$30,000+ / month PR retainer⁵	6–10 hours sourcing journalists and writing pitch emails⁴	Minutes

¹Roll Call, 2026 · ²City & State New York, 2024 · ³FEC filings via OpenSecrets · ⁴Estimated from standard communications research workflow · ⁵Clutch PR pricing benchmarks

See how your message lands

Know how your message is landing with different audiences.

Munshi breaks down how your draft lands with every key audience segment, with the research to back it up.

Analyzing draft across audience segments…

usemunshi.com — Constituent Intelligence · Audience Reactions

Draft Suggestions Audience Reactions

✓ Analysis complete

Message A defense of constituent affordability anchored on homeowner stability — the strongest version of this argument for the district.

Tone Confident and grounded, with one risk: density framing in paragraph two reads as a concession to opponents and may erode suburban-owner trust before the close lands.

Audience segments — example district profile

Suburban homeowners RESONATES STRONGLY

"Protecting neighborhoods" and "homeowner stability" are high-salience frames for this group. They respond to affordability language but are skeptical of new development without neighborhood input. The opposition donor line lands hard here.

Based on national suburban-homeowner research patterns (Pew Research Center, PerryUndem).

Persuadable independents MIXED

This group responds to cost-of-living framing but is skeptical of partisan attack lines. The PAC donor figure is persuasive, but "fought against" language reads as adversarial to low-engagement voters who prefer constructive framing.

Based on independent-voter research patterns (PRRI, Pew).

Senior homeowners (65+) RESONATES

Seniors connect strongly to fixed-income affordability anxiety — property tax burden and rising costs are top concerns. "Families can afford to stay" directly addresses fear of displacement. Consider adding a line on property tax relief to deepen resonance.

Senior housing-affordability research patterns (AARP, NAR Housing Affordability Index).

Latino voters CONCERN

Latino renters and first-time buyers prioritize pathways to homeownership over neighborhood-protection framing. "Protecting existing neighborhoods" can read as exclusionary to this group. Consider adding explicit first-generation buyer language.

Latino housing-attitudes research patterns (UnidosUS, Latino Decisions).

Young renters (under 35) MIXED

Young renters want more housing supply and are frustrated by homeowner-centric framing. They respond to "working families" but distrust messages that implicitly protect existing homeowners at their expense. Supply-side language would broaden appeal significantly.

Young-renter housing research patterns (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Pew).

3 of 5 segments need a different frame. Munshi has suggested edits ready — each grounded in the research above.

See suggested edits →

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